10/29/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Things didn't quite go the way they were supposed to in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Curlin was supposed to win the Classic and secure his second Horse of the Year title.
With a quarter-mile to run the pre-written script was being followed to the letter. Jockey Robby Albarado had Curlin moving on the outside and the two took the lead at the top of the stretch. In mid-stretch Curlin was on his way to winning his second $5 million Classic and wrap up Horse of the Year honors.
With 200 yards to go Curlin tired and Raven's Pass, who simply followed the favorite's path into the stretch, took the lead and won by a little under two- lengths. Curlin faded to fourth in the 12 horse field.
"With Curlin, nothing is a consolation," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "We're just proud of who he is. He's the first North American-based horse over $10 million and he's just had a remarkable run.
"Watching the race first time by, I was very concerned. It kind of looked like the Man o' War. He was off the bridle. Very concerned. I think he had to struggle to get where he was, the first time by. When he went under the wire the first time, he was further back and Robby was nudging him forward. He works harder to go over it than he works to go over the dirt."
Because of that fourth place finish by Curlin, the undefeated filly Zenyatta could be voted Horse of the Year. In the final NTRA National Poll, Zenyatta was first with 170 points to 158 for Curlin. The filly received 11 first place votes and Curlin got seven.
"It's quite an accomplishment to go all year undefeated, and to step up each time, four of them in Grade 1, like she did," said trainer John Shirreffs of the four-year-old filly, unbeaten in nine starts, seven of them this year. "In the vote, she would have to be seriously considered for that."
The major problem I have with Zenyatta, as opposed to Curlin, is the fact that the filly has only raced once outside of the southern California region. Curlin has been overseas, Kentucky and New York this year, and was clearly the best thoroughbred, until Saturday.
When the Eclipse Awards are announced in January, Curlin will receive one for champion older male and Zenyatta will be crowned top older female horse. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a tie for Horse of the Year, as long as one of those horses is Curlin.
<< Brees, Kiwanuka, Moss earn NFC weekly honors
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Pennington earned t
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Line of Scrimmage: Week 9 - Burnout Alert for Singletary >>
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Rays, Phils to resume Game 5 >>
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Panthers ink Kasay to four-year extension >>
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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