No. 23 Michigan hosts Wisconsin in Big Ten lidlifter

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

12/31/2008 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor is the site of today's Big Ten battle between the Wisconsin Badgers and the 23rd-ranked Michigan Wolverines, who have been much better than many expected.

Wisconsin fell to 9-3 overall with a 74-69 loss to Texas at home on December 23rd. The Badgers have been idle since that setback, which halted a three-game win streak. Their other two losses have come against UConn and Marquette, two other ranked foes, while the nine victories have largely come against rather weak opponents.

As for Michigan, it has won its last five games, and the streak began with a triumph over Duke. The Wolverines, who are 10-2 overall, including 8-0 at home, are fresh off a 77-57 decision over North Carolina Central on Monday. Jon Beilein, who coaches the Wolverines, has done an outstanding job since leaving West Virginia to take the job.

Michigan owns an 86-61 series lead over Wisconsin, but the Badgers beat the Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament last season.

Wisconsin is not an explosive offensive team by an means, as the club is generating a modest 66.6 ppg. Fortunately for the Badgers, they have been able to limit foes to 59.7 ppg on 42.9 percent shooting from the floor. They are also pulling down four more boards per contest than the opposition and have attempted 83 more foul shots. Trevon Hughes leads Wisconsin in scoring with 12.6 ppg on the strength of his 47.8 percent shooting from three-point range. Marcus Landry provides 12.1 ppg, and Jason Bohannon adds 11.1 ppg. Hughes scored 18 points against Texas, and Bohannon provided 16 points. Unfortunately for the Badgers, they were outrebounded by a 40-25 margin, including 17-10 on the offensive glass, and that deficit played a major role in the setback.

Manny Harris is the leading scorer for Michigan this season, as he is generating 19.8 ppg to go along with 61 assists and 7.8 rpg. The versatile guard gets plenty of help from DeShawn Sims, the club's best frontcourt performer, who provides 17.2 ppg and 9.2 rpg while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor. The Wolverines are posting 74.8 ppg while limiting opponents to 62.2 ppg on 40.5 percent field goal efficiency. In the romp over NC Central on Monday, Harris exploded for 29 points and he ripped down 16 rebounds as well. Sims scored 17 points, and Laval Lucas-Perry finished with 10. Michigan only connected on 39.3 percent of its field goal attempts, but the club was able to limit its overmatched opponent to 35.8 percent shooting. A 20-4 edge in points from the foul line also helped the Wolverines.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.